Why so many flights are being delayed or cancelled

The northern summer of 2022 was the first major post-pandemic stress test for the aviation industry, and it was chaotic. Airports reported queues never seen before. Flight delays and cancellations blew out, causing travellers to miss cruises, tours they'd booked months before, weddings and other major family events.

On one day in July, airports around the world notched up more than 25,000 flight delays and 3100 cancellations, according to FlightAware.com's live flight tracking data. FlightAware has been publishing an online Misery Map for major domestic airports across the USA, showing where the most delays and cancellations are happening in real time.

In Australia, the mess was echoed in the mid-year school holidays. In one week in July, just 44 per cent of Qantas' flights were on time and flight cancellations approached seven per cent. Virgin Australia's flight cancellations for the same week were close to 15 per cent, with delays to more than half of all the airline's flights.

Attempting to triage the turmoil and passengers' outrage, airlines responded by amputating services. British Airways slashed its summer flight schedule by 13 per cent, followed by a reduction of 10,000 fewer flights from late October 2022 to March 2023. For a brief time, BA banned ticket sales for departures from London's Heathrow, its main base, when the airport instituted a daily departure cap of 100,000 passengers. That cap lasted from July to October, in response to airport staffing shortages in the areas of security, ground staff and baggage handling. In the USA, starting from July 1, 2022, United shucked 50 departures per day from its Newark Airport hub. JetBlue had already cut its summer schedule by 10 per cent while Southwest Airlines took the razor to 8000 flights scheduled for June 2022.

Why the great layoff caused comeback chaos

As a result of the pandemic and the consequent lockdowns and lock-ins, the aviation industry slumped. According to a parliamentary hearing into the future of Australia's aviation sector, at the peak of the crisis, airline passenger traffic in Australia fell by around 97 per cent from pre-pandemic levels. Airlines downsized massively, mothballing aircraft and shaking off staff like a golden retriever after a dip. More than 30,000 aviation workers were stood down or laid off. That's about 30 per cent of Australia's aviation workforce according to Scott McDine, head of the Sydney office of the International Transport Workers' Federation.

After they were stood down most of those workers found employment somewhere else, anything from working in cyber security to hospitality to driving COVID samples to labs for PCR tests. Many were long-term employees, including baby-boomer pilots who were nearing compulsory retirement age when the pandemic struck. Some were offered redundancy packages, which they grabbed. Those pilots feature heavily among the ranks of senior captains.

When the restrictions were loosened and the aviation industry began to get back of its feet, those bits were missing. There were staff shortages right across the spectrum, from baggage handlers to check captains. Even for pilots willing and able to return to work, many were no longer qualified. Pilots have to undergo regular testing to maintain their certification. That didn't happen during the pandemic, and there are only so many flight simulators capable of assessing pilots to the rigorous standards required.

Supply chain bottlenecks