By Michael Gebicki
Peak season: If you want to fly to Bali this winter, be prepared to pay a lot for the fare.Credit: Shutterstock
Considering a Bali getaway for the mid-year school holidays? If you haven't already booked flights you're in for a shock because prices have gone through the roof.
On the Skyscanner website for example, flying out of Sydney on July 4 and returning 10 days later, prices start at $1311. That's for a 23-hour, 40-minute flight on the outward leg with Scoot via Singapore and Jetstar on the return.
From Melbourne the cheapest return flight is a $1426 fare with Jetstar on the outward journey and Jetstar and Tigerair on the return. That's flying via Perth – 12 hours, 15 minutes on the outward journey and 9 hours, 45 minutes on the return.
Women in traditional dress during the Bali Arts Festival. The month-long runs through June.Credit: AP
Results on Momodo, another travel fare aggregator, are similar, starting at $1259 for the Sydney-Denpasar return flights 4-14 July. From Melbourne flights on the same dates start at $1167, however that's with an 18-hour layover in Perth on the outward journey.
According to Skyscanner the cheapest non-stop flight from Sydney is with Jetstar starting at $1382, and with a 6 ½ hour flight on the outward leg and 5 hours, 40 minutes on the return that's the one I'd be taking. From Melbourne there is no available non-stop flight.
Other destinations look cheap by comparison. On the same dates I could fly return from Sydney to Los Angeles from $1600, to Hong Kong from $1213, from Melbourne to Ho Chi Minh City from $1183 or to Tokyo from $1014.
One way to get a better fare using a travel fare aggregator website, Skyscanner in this case, is to book sector-by sector. For example looking at return travel, Sydney-Denpasar for the dates 4-14 July, you could book a return flight to Singapore and a return flight between Singapore and Denpasar. Total cost comes out at $957, a saving of $354 over the Skyscanner price for the Sydney-Denpasar ticket. However the connections in Changi are less than brilliant and you'll be collecting your checked baggage, passing though immigration and customs and checking back in for each connecting flight.
Come August and prices are back to reasonable levels, starting at around $720 for non-stop return flights from Sydney to Denpasar, around $830 from Melbourne.
The spring holiday period for public schools in both Victoria and NSW runs from 23 September to 8 October and that brings another price bump.
Flying out of Melbourne on 25 October, returning on 6 October prices start at $802. That's for a one-stop flights via Kuala Lumpur on the outward leg, via Singapore on the return. The cheapest non-stop flight, with Jetstar, costs $1053.
From Sydney to Denpasar, a non-stop flight both ways is a reasonable option at $868.
So why the huge price hike for flights to Bali in the coming school holidays? According to a spokesperson for Flight Centre, the prices start rising in May.
"We start to see a spike in May for prices to Bali during the July school holidays. People are chasing the sun, and June and July are the most popular months for travel to Bali so the price goes up. To get the best prices for school holiday periods in particular you need to book six months in advance. In the case of Bali we also expect to see special deals immediately after Easter. Under 21 days the prices for these fare buckets will increase."
Emily Callahan, Principal Growth Manager at Skyscanner notes that July is a peak travel season for Aussies, and also their top destination for travel in July is Bali.
"Naturally, flight prices in July reflect this demand. Flight fares do tend to be more volatile the closer we get to the departure date. To ensure planes are filled, airlines use very complex seat management systems, which control the pricing of each seat. It is a real-time interface that responds to demand, resulting in rapid fluctuations of flight fares and more often higher prices when the search is done close to the intended departure date, which is the likely cause for the increase in flight prices."
This year, the price of fares have not been helped by Tigerair ceasing its Bali flights in February due to approval issues with the Indonesian government, reducing competition among low-cost carriers.
The takeaway from all this is simple. "Booking flights as far in advance as possible will increase your chance of getting a good and affordable fare," according to Callaghan." The recommended lead time to book a flight, based on the Skyscanner 'Best time to book' analysis from Sydney to Bali is between 4 to 6 months in advance, where travellers can save between 9-11 per cent of the average flight fare.
See also: 20 things that will shock first-time visitors to Bali
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